Ravens @ Browns 1:00 PM ET

Game# 259-260

Play On: Browns -120

A lot can change between now and the end of the season, but as of this present moment, I’m of strong belief that Cleveland is the better team in this matchup and especially defensively. The Browns are 2-0 at home and won each contest in dominating fashion by a cumulative score of 51-6. Cleveland did lose at Pittsburgh 26-22 but by no fault of their defense. Pittsburgh was a beneficiary of 2 defensive touchdowns in that contest. As a matter of fact, the Browns defense has allowed just 1 touchdown thus far in 2023. Cleveland has won their last 2 at home versus the Ravens. During their first 3 contests, the Browns stop unit allowed only an average of 163.7 yards per game. You may be surprised to know that since 12/19/2021, Baltimore has gone an abysmal 0-9 SU when facing teams with a winning record. Give me the Browns on the money line.

Broncos @ Bears 1:00 PM ET

Game# 257-258

Play On: Over 46.5

Denver has been pathetic in their last 2 games while surrendering a combined 105 points and 1114 yards. Even a struggling offense like the Bears possess should have moderate success against them. The Broncos offensive production during their previous 2 contests has put up respectable numbers of 26.5 points scored and 381.0 yards gained per game. The Bear defense has left much to be desired over their previous 2 games while giving up a combined 65 points and 890 yards. Chicago has gone over in each of their 3 contests in 2023 and there was a combined 51.0 points scored per game. Give me this game to go over the total.

Cardinals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET

Game# 275-276

Play On: 49ers -13.5

These are water I very rarely swim in which is laying a double-digit number when it comes to NFL betting. However, there’s an exception to every rule and this one qualifies under that heading. The oddsmakers seem undeterred that the Cardinals (1-2) are coming off an impressive 28-16 win over Dallas in a game they closed as an 11.5-point home underdog and considering their 2 losses came by just a combined 7 points. However, they’ll be facing a beat on Sunday in San Francisco who’s 3-0 and outscored their opponents by a cumulative score of 90-42.

Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 or greater Like San Francisco that’s facing an opponent coming off a home underdog of 4.0 or more SU win, resulted in those home favorites going a perfect 15-0 SU&ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by an average of 24.6 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus points.

Falcons vs. Jaguars 9:30 AM ET

Game# 251-252

Play On: Under 43.0

The Falcons are averaging 18.0 points per game and allowing 18.3 points per contest during their 2-1 start to the season. They’re also averaging just 287.7 yards gained and 283.3 yards allowed per contest thus far. Those numbers don’t exactly translate to an exciting brand of football.

Jacksonville is coming off an embarrassing 38-17 division home loss to Houston which marked a 2nd consecutive defeat and dropped their season record to 1-2 (.333). The Jaguars have been regular travelers to Europe and recent seasons and have seen their last 4 go under the total with a combined average of 38.0 points scored per game.

Any team like Jacksonville with a win percentage of between .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 10 points or more in which they allowed 28 points or greater, and there’s a total of 42.0 to 48.0, versus an opponent like Atlanta who has a winning record, resulted in those contests playing 25-1 (96.2%) to the under since 2012. That exact scenario except for a total is 44.5 or less, played 10-0 to the under since 2012 and with a combined average of 33.5 points scored per game. Give me this game to go under the total.