Jack's Free Pick Saturday: East Carolina -8.5

This game has been moved from Tampa to Boca Raton due to Hurricane Ian.  It will no longer be a home game for the South Florida Bulls, and I don't think it's being factored into this line enough.  East Carolina is going to win this game by double-digits and cover the number for us Saturday.

This is a terrible matchup for the Bulls.  They are allowing 246 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry this season.  They gave up 312 rushing yards to BYU, 220 to Florida and 283 to Louisville.  Now they face an ECU team that is rushing for 188 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  This is a balanced ECU offense that also averages 276 passing yards per game.

This line would be higher if the Pirates were 4-0 instead of 2-2.  You could argue they should be 4-0 as they have outgained all four opponents.  They missed an extra point in their 21-20 loss to NC State as 12-point underdogs.  NC State is one of the best teams in the country, and they outgained the Wolfpack by 39 yards in that contest.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 20-23 (OT) loss last week as 16-point favorites.  So this is now a good 'buy low' spot on the Pirates off that upset defeat.

South Florida was blasted 21-50 by BYU and 3-41 by Louisville.  They also failed to cover in a 22-point win over FCS Howard as a 39.5-point favorite, one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  They only outgained Howard by 6 yards in that contest.  The Bulls are still getting too much respect for their 28-31 loss to Florida, which was clearly the aberration.

East Carolina has owned South Florida each of the last two seasons.  They won 44-24 in 2020 and 29-14 in 2021.  It should be more of the same as this is the best ECU team they have had in the four years under Mike Houston, while it's clear that Jeff Scott and the Bulls are still in rebuilding mode in his third season at the helm.

The Pirates are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  The Pirates will win this game by double-digits and extend the lead in the 2nd half with their ability to run the football against this soft USF run defense.  ECU will stop the run as they allow just 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have faced Navy and NC State.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

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1* Free Pick on Chargers/Texans under 45 -110

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 10-1-22

Oregon -16

Pure Lock has a TOP CFB play available on Friday on the San Diego State/Boise State. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here. Currently on an impressive 28-8 (78%) run over his last 38 football picks! $1,000 per game players have CASHED $19,440 since October 02, 2021!  Pure Lock has cashed 100% in College Football this year after an easy winner with Minnesota last Saturday!  Pure Lock went 14-0 100% in College Football in 2006!  Can he repeat that performance?