Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 12, 2024
Flames vs Ducks
-143 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

Both these sides do not inspire bettors, but one side has an edge here. The Flames matchup well vs a  Ducks  team that have a recent history of struggling vs aggressive offense sides like Calgary. Note:ANAHEIM is 4-26 ATS in home games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ANAHEIM is 3-21 ATS )in home games against good offensive teams - 29 or more  shots on goal, convert 17% pp or better  - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Home underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line (ANAHEIM) - sub par team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after a win by 2 goals or more are 8-45 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.(Ducks took a rare win last time out by a 3-1 count vs the Kings). 

Play on the Flames to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 12, 2024
Nets vs Knicks
OVER 210½ -110 Won
Play Type: Premium

Im betting these NY NBA rivals play a fairly wide open game tonight that I project will be higher scoring than the lines-makers are expecting . I know Brooklyn will be short handed overall but their replacements will be playing loose and  looking for extended contracts, so I expect aggressive action. Meanwhile, the Knicks offense has been hitting on all cylinders, and according to my numbers will exceed the 120 point plateau in this event , even though they played last night in a win vs the Celtics. (. NYK has put 122, 128, and 118 points on the board  in their L/3 tilts) Even in a letdown situation, and with the Nets playing short handed we should get over this exaggerated totals offering. 

NEW YORK is 13-4 OVER in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in 44 games as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. 

BROOKLYN is 37-18 OVER   when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. BROOKLYN iin 43 games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts this season have seen a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored.BROOKLYN i n 36  road games this season has seen a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored.BROOKLYN in 43 games  revenging a loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 221.8 ppg scored.NEW YORK  in 39 home games this season has seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BROOKLYN) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 53-21 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 231.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 12, 2024
Twins vs Tigers
-122 at circa
Play Type: Premium

Minnesota ended  a four-game losing streak by recording a 3-2 victory vs the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, but their offensive inconsistencies give cause for pause when believing they may be ready to get going in a positive direction. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense has shown flashes of brilliance and according to my power rankings matches up well against the Lopez the Twins expected starter . After yesterdays cancellation and their Day off on Wednesday the Tigers are well rested and ready for a top tier effort. 

 MINNESOTA is 6-23  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better  over the last 3 seasons.

DETROIT is 29-13   against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Home teams (DETROIT) - American League team who had a slugging percentage .410 or worse last season, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 26-8 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-35 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).