This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Diamondbacks.

I think the Dodgers are poised to take a big step back this season after setting a franchise-record with a 111 wins last year. 

Walker Buehler is going to miss most of the season with Tommy John. Trea Turner is gone. Gavin Lux is out for the season with a knee injury. They still have plenty of talent on the front end, but there are big holes for sure.

The Diamondbacks took a step forward last year, and they should once again take another modest step forward this season as well. 

Julio Urias posted a 2.16 ERA last year. Regression feels imminent to me this season though.

Zac Gallen was 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA last ear. He led the NL with a 0.913 WHIP. He's 1-2 in nine starts vs. the Dodgers, but with a 2.30 ERA (that includes posting a 0.64 ERA in 14 frames vs. them last season.) 

Granted, Urias has had plent of success vs. Arizona as well, going 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA in eight starts.

But, I think Gallen can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value then swings to the undervalued underdog.

The play is ARIZONA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* RUNLINE BOB on the A's.

Despite Shohei Ohtani getting the start here, it's always difficult to trust the Angels on the road. Ohtani was 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA last season. He pretty much dominated the A's, but I think they'll have their opportunities as this game wears on.

Kyle Muller comes over from Atlanta after only going 1-1 with an 8.03 ERA in 2022. He'll benefit from an under the radar A's offense that was lighting things up in Spring Training, posting 12 runs vs. the Giants in Monday's exhibition finale.

I think this one could even be decided in extras.

Grab the 1.5 runs, the play is OAKLAND on the RUN-LINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Mets/Marlins.

Both of these teams struggled with offensive consistency last year. That will likely be the case again this season.

This Opening Day pick though is based upon the quality of these starting pitchers. 

Max Scherzer was 11-5 with a 2.29 ER last year. He's 15-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 26 starts in his career vs. Miami.

Sandy Alcantara was 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA in 2022 and in 14 career matchups opposite the Mets he's gone a highly-respectable 3-5 with a 2.97 ERA. 

Look for these two dominant starters to battle deep. The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals.

All the pieces are in place for each of these teams to do well this year.

The Jays go with Alex Manoah, who was 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA last year. 

The Cards are favored to win the NL Central this season. Miles Mikolas gets the nod, and he was 12-13 with a 3.29 ERA last year. He faced the Jays' high-powered offense last year and dominated, going seven innings and allowing three earned runs, with St. Louis winning 7-3. 

St. Louis has won its last three Openers and I expect that to once again be the case here. This is a difficult road venue for the Jays on Opening Day, so I say the value for sure here lies with St. Louis.

The play is the CARDINALS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Tigers/Rays.

The odds are against the Tigers to make the playoffs this year, but I expect them to plate a few runs here on Opening Day.

They hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, who was not the team's first pick to start on Opening Day. However, Matt Boyd is still out for a week or two with injury. 

Rodriguez went 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts for Detroit last season, suffering through injury. He's a terrible 2-5 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA in 14 career appearances vs. the Rays.

Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA for the Rays last year. He'll be leaned upon heavily this season.

But that said, I expect each team to plate a few here on Opening Day, and this total is just way too low.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Red Sox.

It's an important early season divisional matchup. Boston let a lot of bettors down last year, but at this price, I think that Corey Kluber and the home side offer really good value.

Kyle Gibson went 10-8 with a poor 5.05 ERA in 31 starts for Philadelphia this year. Gibson is on the downward trajectory of his career, and an Opening Day start on the road will prove to be difficult in my opinion.

Kluber is also on the back-end of his career. He finished 10-10 with a respectable 4.34 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays last year. He's 6-4 in 16 career starts vs. the Orioles though. He's also won four of his seven starts at Fenway as a vistor to go along with a 3.53 ERA.

I say the Orioles take a step back this season, while the Red Sox are poised for improvement.

Those trajectories start here on Opening Day. Lay the price, the play is BOSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* RISE AND SHINE WINNER On the Giants on the run-line.

Are the Yankees overhyped this year? They took a step forward last season (I guess), but I feel that New York will also be overrated to some extent, no matter what.

The Yanks should make the playoffs again. The Giants should make the playoffs again as well. Each team is loaded with talent and it's not too hard to make a convincing argument for either side to win this one.

I honestly think that Logan Webb and the Giants could win this one outright. Webb and Gerrit Cole have similar/comparable numbers. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or perhaps in even in extra innings, I believe the value here lies in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket.

The play is the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Sabres.

The Rangers' three-game win streak came to an end in last night's 2-1 loss at New Jersey. I say fatigue plays a factor here at the end of the season and in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.

Buffalo plays with revenge after a 2-1 OT loss to the Rangers on March 11th, and note that the Sabres are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent. 

Buffalo had its two game win streak snapped with a 4-3 shootout loss to Montreal, but it's had three whole nights off to regroup here. 

Great value on the revenge-minded home side, the play is BUFFALO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Padres.

I play underdogs, I play totals, I play first half picks, I play parlays, teasers, and I also am not afraid to lay chalk and hammer a favorite when I think my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger fav.

And that's the case here with the Padres. I think they should be more like a -275 fav in this case, so there is plenty of value to be had. 

Freeland has had success here in the past vs. San Diego, but Nick Martinez has a golden opportunity here to highlight his talent with injuries to starters Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. Martinez was 4-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 42 games last season. He was particularly effective against the Rockies last year, as in six appearances he posted a 3.31 ERA spanning 16 1/3's innings of work.

Lay the price with condfidence, the play is SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Astros.

I'm going to lay the price here on the home side and expect it to dig deep and deliver after losing 3-2 as a -140 favorite. 

Lance Lynn has always had a hell of a time against the Astros, as he's 0-5 with a ballooned 8.80 ERA over his last five starts vs. Houston. 

Christian Javier is worth the price of admission here. Over 30 appearances for the Astros last year he finished with a tiny 2.54 ERA. He's only faced the White Sox once in his career (last season), and he gave up one run with five K's over five innings in a 4-3 victory.

I expect another victory here today as well. Lay the price, the play is the ASTROS.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Mets/Marlins.

Yesterday's Season Opener flew OVER the total in New York's 5-3 victory, but I believe Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." 

David Peterson gets the start here because of injuries to Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander. Last year Peterson was 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 appearances. In five career outings vs. the Marlins he's 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA.

The Mets bullpen looked good, getting three scoreless innings of relief.

Jesus Lazardo gets the nod for the home side. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four career starts vs. the Mets. Last year had had 18 starts and finished 4-7 with a career-best 3.32 ERA. 

I expect another tight, competitive affair on Friday as well, but one that stays UNDER the number.

Good luck, NP